Effective climate action can only be global in scope

Insights from a Core-Periphery SOCIO-ECO-MRIO-SFC Model

Author
Affiliation

Oriol Vallès Codina

Johns Hopkins University, Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab, Department of Political Science

Published

November 25, 2025

Initialization

The initial values and variables are loaded from the file stored in variable identif in a different structure as before.

Table of Industries

number industry
1 Agriculture
2 Animal Farming
3 Forestry, logging and related service activities (02)
4 Fishing, operating of fish hatcheries and fish farms; service activities incidental to fishing (05)
5 Extraction of Fossil-Fuels
6 Mining & Quarrying of raw materials
7 Processing of meat
8 Processing of other food&beverage
9 Manufacture of tobacco products (16)
10 Manufacture of textiles
11 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials (20)
12 Re-processing of secondary wood material into new wood material
13 Pulp
14 Re-processing of secondary paper into new pulp
15 Paper
16 Processing of Fossil Fuels
17 Plastics, basic
18 Re-processing of secondary plastic into new plastic
19 Manufacture of Chemicals
20 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products (25)
21 Manufacture of glass and glass products
22 Re-processing of secondary glass into new glass
23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
24 Manufacture of cement, lime and plaster
25 Re-processing of ash into clinker
26 Manufacture of Metals
27 Re-processing of Metals
28 Manufacture of durable goods
29 Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. (36)
30 Recycling
31 Production of electricity by fossil fuels
32 Production of electricity by renewable energy
33 Transmission & Distribution
34 Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains
35 Water
36 Construction (45)
37 Re-processing of secondary construction material into aggregates
38 Sale, maintenance, repair of motor vehicles, motor vehicles parts, motorcycles, motor cycles parts and accessoiries
39 Retail sale of automotive fuel
40 Retail & Wholesale trade
41 Leisure Services
42 Transport
43 KIBS
44 Real estate activities (70)
45 Renting of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods (71)
46 Research and development (73)
47 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (75)
48 Education (80)
49 Health and social work (85)
50 Incineration of Waste
51 Biogas & Composting
52 Waste water
53 Landfill of Waste
54 Other Services

MRIO \(A\) Matrix Visualization

Importantly, the column names of the \(A\) matrix contained in identif determine the country and industry labels in the whole model, following the grammar country_label.industry_label:


Attaching package: 'igraph'
The following objects are masked from 'package:dplyr':

    as_data_frame, groups, union
The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':

    decompose, spectrum
The following object is masked from 'package:base':

    union
Warning: `get.edgelist()` was deprecated in igraph 2.0.0.
ℹ Please use `as_edgelist()` instead.

Calibration

Target values are loaded in format long (target.set) and wide (target.table.0). Units are divided by 10,000 for convenience.

$table
             Z1_c        Z2_c       Z1_id      Z2_id       Z1_g        Z2_g
value  626.317880 2370.705952 196.6150852 908.672096 239.459251 675.3283891
target 639.442534 2490.186243 193.4427224 926.058386 240.000000 675.0000000
ratio    1.020955    1.050399   0.9838651   1.019134   1.002258   0.9995137
           Z1_rex     Z2_rex     Z1_imp     Z2_imp Z1_M_TOT_int Z2_M_TOT_int
value  102.775931 66.3570804 66.3570804 102.775931   123.151817   105.854567
target 103.050978 60.7293075 60.7293075 103.050978   125.474198   108.929424
ratio    1.002676  0.9151896  0.9151896   1.002676     1.018858     1.029048
             Z1_fd       Z2_fd       Z1_va       Z2_va       Z1_go       Z2_go
value  1098.811066 3918.287587 1081.513816 3935.584836 2153.602494 8424.517003
target 1165.206927 4278.922959 1237.843213 4580.169886 2188.158529 8687.182370
ratio     1.060425    1.092039    1.144547    1.163784    1.016046    1.031179
           Z1_gdef    Z2_gdef Z1_debt_gdp Z2_debt_gdp      Z1_b_s      Z2_b_s
value   0.25000000  0.2500000    0.800000    0.600000 1373.000000 5040.000000
target -0.02477849 -0.1872231    1.109977    1.101777 1373.977228 5046.325726
ratio  -0.09911398 -0.7488925    1.387471    1.836295    1.000712    1.001255

$total.fit
[1] 0.2165201

$fitness
[1] 0.2165201

Shock Example 7: Product Lifetime Extension

Run Shock

This is a simple visualization of shock 7. Please note the new grammar to change initial values.

Visualize Shocked Variables

Visualize Impacts

Visualize Selected Variables Without Function

Summary Table

Name Variable Immediate.Z1 Short.Term.Z1 Long.Term.Z1 Immediate.Z2 Short.Term.Z2 Long.Term.Z2
Economic n 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Economic c 2.58 0.75 2.53 0.26 -0.54 -1.79
Economic ineq -23.95 -43.96 -67.67 -2.22 0.04 1.88
Economic va 2.89 1.76 0.25 0.41 0.26 -0.38
Economic cab -22.05 110.12 289.21 -22.05 110.12 289.21
Economic nf 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Economic gdef -847.14 2455.47 -90835.87 -2295.90 -10329.11 -13117.29
Economic tb 17.89 79.82 123.17 17.89 79.82 123.17
Economic go 1.98 -0.83 -3.34 0.29 -0.07 -0.90
Macroeconomic c 2.58 0.75 2.53 0.26 -0.54 -1.79
Macroeconomic rva 1.84 1.34 0.14 0.35 0.23 -0.39
Macroeconomic go 1.98 -0.83 -3.34 0.29 -0.07 -0.90
Macroeconomic id 0.84 -5.85 -17.87 0.09 -0.09 -1.01
External cab -22.05 110.12 289.21 -22.05 110.12 289.21
External gdef -847.14 2455.47 -90835.87 -2295.90 -10329.11 -13117.29
External tb 17.89 79.82 123.17 17.89 79.82 123.17
Social n 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Social nf 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Social shp 6.94 13.54 22.50 0.61 -0.01 -0.51
Social shw -3.98 -7.76 -12.89 -0.35 0.01 0.29
Prices pa 1.53 4.35 6.33 0.18 0.56 0.84
Prices pid 3.60 11.03 16.70 0.30 0.91 1.38
Prices pg 0.70 1.94 2.60 0.14 0.43 0.65
Prices pim 0.27 0.82 1.24 4.52 14.00 21.44
Employment n 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Employment nf 2.33 -0.13 -2.54 0.31 -0.11 -0.97
Inequality ydw 2.07 -0.44 -2.92 0.27 -0.09 -0.88
Inequality ydc 13.69 22.55 36.53 1.23 -0.11 -1.68
Inequality ineq -23.95 -43.96 -67.67 -2.22 0.04 1.88
Inequality shp 6.94 13.54 22.50 0.61 -0.01 -0.51
Inequality shw -3.98 -7.76 -12.89 -0.35 0.01 0.29
Debt.and.Wealth lh 1.52 4.25 6.08 0.19 0.55 9.50
Debt.and.Wealth lf 19.16 38.85 -1.79 0.69 2.09 2.19
Debt.and.Wealth v 1.30 6.38 17.03 0.12 0.11 -0.85
Debt.and.Wealth k 0.23 -1.49 -8.30 0.03 -0.01 -0.88
Debt.and.Wealth b_s -0.33 0.34 -5.03 -0.15 0.16 4.82
Ecological x_mat 1.44 -1.47 -3.52 0.38 -0.10 -0.99
Ecological mat 1.53 -0.87 -2.14 0.32 -0.08 -1.01
Ecological rec 1.29 -2.33 -5.51 0.49 -0.12 -0.96
Ecological emis 1.40 -0.04 0.19 0.37 -0.06 -0.93
Ecological wa 1.98 -0.84 -3.43 0.29 -0.07 -0.89

Shock Example 4: Higher Use of Circular Economy Inputs

Run Shock

This is a simple visualization of shock 4. Please note the new grammar to change initial values.

Using label, name, industry, type as id variables

Visualize Shocked Variables

Visualize Impacts

Summary Table

Name Variable Immediate.Z1 Short.Term.Z1 Long.Term.Z1 Immediate.Z2 Short.Term.Z2 Long.Term.Z2
Economic n 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Economic c -1.09 0.02 -0.05 0.07 0.07 -0.02
Economic ineq 7.83 2.23 -4.70 -0.68 -0.56 0.03
Economic va 1.92 0.87 0.14 0.23 0.14 0.03
Economic cab -31.99 -21.58 6.18 -31.99 -21.58 6.18
Economic nf 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Economic gdef 1919.39 2494.16 5285.69 -906.17 1630.81 9.09
Economic tb -20.22 -9.76 7.27 -20.22 -9.76 7.27
Economic go 1.37 0.74 -0.21 0.16 0.08 0.01
Macroeconomic c -1.09 0.02 -0.05 0.07 0.07 -0.02
Macroeconomic rva 2.46 0.96 0.14 0.20 0.14 0.03
Macroeconomic go 1.37 0.74 -0.21 0.16 0.08 0.01
Macroeconomic id 11.68 4.09 -0.68 0.11 0.06 0.01
External cab -31.99 -21.58 6.18 -31.99 -21.58 6.18
External gdef 1919.39 2494.16 5285.69 -906.17 1630.81 9.09
External tb -20.22 -9.76 7.27 -20.22 -9.76 7.27
Social n 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Social nf 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Social shp -2.08 -0.60 1.29 0.18 0.15 -0.01
Social shw 1.19 0.35 -0.74 -0.11 -0.09 0.00
Prices pa 0.85 0.25 0.45 0.08 0.06 0.04
Prices pid 1.16 0.93 1.28 0.11 0.08 0.07
Prices pg 0.74 0.32 0.27 0.06 0.04 0.03
Prices pim 1.24 1.21 0.06 0.71 0.30 0.78
Employment n 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Employment nf 1.08 0.63 -0.18 0.15 0.07 0.00
Inequality ydw 1.17 0.65 -0.18 0.14 0.07 0.00
Inequality ydc -2.10 -0.30 1.86 0.43 0.31 -0.01
Inequality ineq 7.83 2.23 -4.70 -0.68 -0.56 0.03
Inequality shp -2.08 -0.60 1.29 0.18 0.15 -0.01
Inequality shw 1.19 0.35 -0.74 -0.11 -0.09 0.00
Debt.and.Wealth lh 0.95 0.32 0.45 0.09 0.07 0.06
Debt.and.Wealth lf 9.14 8.21 2.91 0.28 0.17 0.13
Debt.and.Wealth v 0.14 0.25 0.74 0.08 0.17 0.08
Debt.and.Wealth k 0.46 0.64 -0.54 0.04 0.06 0.02
Debt.and.Wealth b_s -0.39 0.84 2.10 -0.11 -0.23 -0.37
Ecological x_mat 3.06 1.53 -0.35 0.24 0.11 0.00
Ecological mat 2.60 1.21 -0.28 0.24 0.10 0.00
Ecological rec 3.71 2.00 -0.46 0.23 0.13 -0.01
Ecological emis -0.11 0.20 -0.09 0.18 0.08 0.01
Ecological wa 1.42 0.76 -0.21 0.17 0.08 0.01